The construction industry will need to attract an estimated 349,000 net new workers in 2026 to meet anticipated demand for construction services, according to a proprietary model developed by Associated Builders and Contractors. In 2027, the industry will need to bring in 456,000 new workers as spending growth is expected to resume.
ABC’s proprietary model uses the historical relationship between inflation-adjusted construction spending growth—sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Construction Put in Place Survey—and payroll construction employment—sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—to convert anticipated increases in construction outlays into demand for construction workers at a rate of about 3,450 jobs per billion dollars of additional spending. The model also incorporates the current level of job openings, unemployment and projected industry retirements and exits into its calculations.
“The industry needs to attract fewer workers than in recent years, a decline that can be traced to extremely modest spending growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Given current assumptions regarding prospective industry growth, a majority of new worker demand in 2026 will be attributable to retirement rather than increased demand for construction services, despite the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout.
“The industry will need even more workers than the model predicts should current spending projections prove overly conservative,” Basu continued. “That is a distinct possibility, especially if project financing costs decline unexpectedly or if lingering policy uncertainty resolves itself quickly and favorably. It is also important to note that nonresidential specialty trade contractors have added 95,000 jobs since August 2024, according to ABC analysis of BLS employment data, demonstrating that certain sectors of nonresidential construction hiring are going strong.”
ABC President and CEO Michael Bellaman said the organization’s analysis shows a “series of macrodynamics at play in the industry.”
“These include an aging and retiring workforce, immigration enforcement, high materials prices, tariffs, office vacancies and rapidly evolving technologies and innovation,” Bellaman said. “Despite these variables, the analysis shows the construction industry still faces an urgent need for talent to build and rebuild America’s infrastructure.”
